A-Rod's quest for 600 home runs approaches 2 weeks

Baseball Betting Lines

08/03/2010 -

NEW YORK (AP) -The numbers on the specially marked balls for Alex Rodriguez's at-bats must be getting up there - perhaps, uhm, close to say 600.

The Yankees slugger's quest - and by now it is one - for membership in the exclusive 600-homer club extended into its 11th game Monday with an 0-for-5 night against the Toronto Blue Jays.

``I thought I swung the bat better today. I had some pretty good pitches to hit,'' Rodriguez said after the Yankees' 8-6 loss. ``The difference between 0 for 5 and 2 for 5 is small.''

A-Rod's drive to become the youngest player and seventh overall to reach the milestone began after he homered off Kansas City reliever Robinson Tejeda on July 22 and has gone on for 48 plate appearances against four teams in three cities.

He's hitless in his last 14 at-bats and is 9 for 43 overall with eight RBIs during the drought. The closest he has come to the homer is a couple of long fly balls that were caught in front of the warning track.

Most of the 47,034 fans remained in their seats Monday for one more chance to see him bat in the ninth, and they got it. But Rodriguez grounded to shortstop against Kevin Gregg to end the game.

``The way I'm swinging, it's probably going to take a while. Everybody get comfortable,'' Rodriguez said, smiling on Sunday.

Rodriguez began the search for 600 by saying that he isn't going to feel the pressure the same way he did when he was going for No. 500 in 2007, a wait of 10 days and 28 at-bats. He even playfully checked out the marked balls that are switched in before he steps to the plate in one of his first at-bats, way back on July 23.

His manager says Rodriguez can't possibly ignore the significance of the pending homer.

``With the flashbulbs going off all the time and changing the ball, I don't know how you don't think about it,'' Joe Girardi said.

Nearly a week past his 35th birthday, the three-time MVP appeared loose before Monday's game, hitting many balls over the wall in batting practice, including a rare shot that banged off the black glass of a sports bar in center field - way beyond the 408-foot sign and above monument park.

While Rodriguez needed 41 at-bats to hit his first homer this season and has just 16 home runs this year, a stretch like this while approaching 600 is unusual. Babe Ruth separated 599 and 600 with one at-bat, Hank Aaron two. Barry Bonds' spell was eight, Sammy Sosa's was 13 and Ken Griffey Jr.'s 17, according to STATS LLC. Willie Mays went 21 homerless at-bats before his milestone shot.

Girardi said he hasn't seen the frustration growing, but he did keep his clean-up hitter out of the starting lineup against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Rodriguez struck out looking as a pinch-hitter in his lone at-bat.

``Nothing told me that he didn't have good at-bats or wasn't being patient,'' Girardi said Monday. ``He just didn't get any hits.''

In his first game back at Yankee Stadium after a fruitless seven-game road trip to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, Rodriguez was greeted with loud cheers. But fans only in seats beyond the walls in right and left field are standing now with every pitch.

Thousands of camera flashes still burst in a brilliant sparkle with each pitch - think of all the wasted photos - and fans roared when the count turned to Rodriguez's favor in the third. The groans were just as loud when he struck out on a 96 mph pitch from Brandon Morrow.

Rodriguez joked that he doesn't notice the flashes, saying, ``I'm used to it; it's been about a month.''

Morrow said he noticed the flashes once, but it would be a lot easier to forget that being part of history was one pitch away if it wasn't stamped on the baseballs.

``It's a lot easier to put it out of your mind if they didn't give you a new ball everytime he was up,'' he said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.

"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .

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